.THERE IS ACTUALLY minimal uncertainty about the very likely winner of Britain's standard election on July fourth: with a lead of 20 amount factors in nationwide opinion polls, the Labour Gathering is remarkably probably to gain. But there is uncertainty about the size of Work's majority in Britain's 650-seat Property of Commons. Some polling firms have published chair forecasts using a novel procedure called multi-level regression and also post-stratification (MRP). What are these polls-- as well as just how correct are they?